Elections in the Netherlands on Wednesday for a special meeting called by Europe and an important indicator of obstruction before the strong to remain on the far right of the continent that has bitter memories of fascism but also more and more aspiring nationalist leader.

Dutch vote is the first in a series of critical European elections this year, after which they are in France, Germany and possibly Italy. They are in the same campaign, the attacks against the European Union to liquidate the sovereignty, opening the borders to the immigrants and leaves the nations vulnerable to the violence.

“It’s a quarter-final match to try to avoid false populism to win,” Mark Rutte, Dutch Prime Minister and leader of the center-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, said the Netherlands election.

“The semi-finals in France in April and May and in September in Germany, we have an end,” he said.

Everywhere has increased populist ‘nationalist party’ to ensure immigration and reduce maintenance of local culture. The question now is whether populists or dim as new aversion among voters.

While support for the crater party fence almost everywhere, some analysts see new clues warning strike and anti-elite voting that helps raise populist politicians recently, because of uncertainty and conflicts ushered in the first few weeks of Trump’s administration and sound Last year British to leave the European Union or Brexit.

Hajo Funke, a political scientist at the Free University in Berlin, said the first signs were detected in recent weeks to oppose populism.

In Germany, for example, the far right alternative to Germany’s party is getting in the polls. Mr Funke said he believes voters are looking at Europe in Brexit and not as President of Trump but alarming inspiration.

“No trace of Trump,” he said. “Nothing happened.” At the present time, a populist, he said: “I have seen stagnation or decline.”

Dutch Funke said Geert Wilders, a fiercely anti-Islamist politician in Europe, is struggling to improve his position last week after the rapid rise in polls.

“There is a risk that he could get out of control as far as the vote for Wilders,” he said, “But I doubt this is the case.”

While populists like Wilders not to apply, other analysts, high profile and often the presence of inflammation has a lot of political debate on the right side of the peat bogs that have been transferred. Martial in many ways has already won.

“From the beginning of Geert Wilders in the political arena, he is in charge, but he has caused the effect,” says Bert Bakker, professor of communication at the University of Amsterdam.

The discussion in the Netherlands, often amidst restrictions on immigrants, identity politics and nationalism.

Professor, researchers and others who are closely following the election confirms that, at least in the Netherlands, the far right will not win the Board of Directors or control – or – not least because the parties the right to support each other Had not publicly promised Wilders is working with a coalition.

He did not stop to identify the version of a clearer view of the far right in many things. One of the consequences is that the correct vision extremes dominate the debate, stifling perspective and other problems.

Not really win the whole

“While the parties do not really win the whole or part of the state, to move the whole anti-immigration stance, a more pro-nationalistic role, trying to win over voters of globalization,” said Jasper Mouse, professor of sociology at Free University of Amsterdam to explore populism.

Immigration and asylum seekers are focused on values ​​and on the other hand to the other, “he said,” but not a lot of talk about the success of economic development and employment, and is part of the populists: Very difficult to talk about other topics. ”

Optimistic about the prospects, Mr. Wilders in order to receive PVV, about 15 percent of the vote. Although his voice is combined with the far-right and anti-establishment of the other extreme party, it may be the total number of seats in Parliament for 150 seats, no more than about 30 or 20 percent of parliament.

However, the CDA party to promote the almost conservative line on immigration of Wilders, a simple change of position over the past few years. The party now seems likely to win over as many places as Wilders, and added to the dominant position on the right side, and right-wing parties of the center-right would have a majority.

Although the judge has dominated the campaign, the fact is that the Netherlands is very different and the wall is losing ground in an increasingly fractured political landscape.

There are 28 parties on the ballot paper. Only 10 and 12 get enough votes to win seats in Parliament. It was perhaps four or five coalition parties – all but ensuring that it depends so much on the left and right.

For this reason, some experienced political observers in Europe to say drifting to the right in the Netherlands may be more important than the trend in the continent of practical effect.

Some analysts are more concerned about the French vote, as the leader of the presidential candidate of the National Front of far-right Marine Le Pen, a group of voters that much has been done in tow.

“Blok Le Pen is very consistent, which is different from other populists,” said Funke of the Free University of Berlin.

Northern League Win If The Elections held

The biggest concern for Italy where populist Five of the star party and the Northern League win if the elections were held, in part, the platform needs to go on a proposal for a referendum on whether Italy and the euro. This will cause the loss of confidence of foreign investors and the capital of the continent.

“Italy is probably the worst, because if they had to decide the election is a referendum on the euro,” Mr. Funke said, “then there will be great danger.”